You can blame inflation for shorter holiday gift lists this year.

Persistent inflation — consumer prices increased by 8.5% in July over last year — has reshaped how Americans are budgeting for everyday necessities and occasional indulgences. Prices are up for everything from groceries to clothing, shoes, stationery items and more.

What does all this mean for the upcoming 2022 holiday shopping season? Less. A lot less.

It’ll be a stark contrast from last year’s robust holiday performance, according to a new forecast from consulting firm Deloitte.

It expects retail sales for the key year-end gift-buying months of November, December and January to increase 4% to 6%. This compares with a robust 15.1% increase for the same time frame last year.

The projected sharp pullback from last year “reflects the slowdown in the economy,” Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster, said in a report. “Retail sales are likely to be further affected by declining demand for durable consumer goods, which had been the centerpiece of pandemic spending.”

The 15% growth in holiday shopping last season was also largely due to the “uncommon circumstances surrounding the pandemic”, namely the shift to spending on “things rather than experience and the extra cash provided by the stimulus checks,” said Andrew Forman, associate professor of marketing, at Hofstra University’s Frank G. Zarb School of Business.

Among the gifting categories that are still expected to do well this year are clothing, toys and gift cards. Spending in restaurants, entertainment and travel should also perk up, said Rod Sides, vice chair with Deloitte and head of its U.S. retail and distribution practice.

“Overall, there will still be sales growth but it won’t be as dramatic as last year,” said Sides. “If there are fewer gift purchases by consumers, expect to see even more holiday promotions than ever.”

Inflation won’t be the Grinch that completely stole Christmas, according to Neil Saunders, retail analyst and managing director at GlobalData Retail.

One area where there won’t be much of a cutback? Gifts for kids. Said Saunders, “Parents are always keen to pull out all the stops to ensure children have a great holiday.”

Words to Learn 相关词汇

【享受】xiǎngshòu indulgence a thing that is indulged in, a luxury

【缩减】suōjiǎn pullback a reduction in price or demand

今年过节送礼名单变短了，要怪就怪通货膨胀。

持续的通胀——7月消费者价格同比上涨8.5%——已经改变了美国人花费在日常必需品和偶尔放纵上的预算。从食品杂货到服装、鞋、文具等各种商品的价格都上涨了。

所有这些对即将到来的2022节日购物季意味着什么呢？意味着人们会减少开支，而且是大减。

咨询公司德勤的最新预测显示，今年的节日销售业绩将与去年形成强烈反差。

德勤预期年末送礼季（11月、12月和1月）的零售额将比其他月份增长4%到6%。相比之下，去年同期的增长幅度高达15.1%。

德勤的美国经济预测师丹尼尔•巴赫曼在一份报告中称，相比去年零售额大减“反映出经济正在减速。零售业的销售额可能还会进一步受到耐用消费品需求下降的影响，而耐用消费品一直是疫情支出的核心。”

霍夫斯特拉大学弗兰克扎布商学院的营销学副教授安德鲁•福曼指出，去年节日购物季15%的增幅很大程度上也是由于“和疫情有关的特殊情况”，人们转而购买“物品而非经历”，同时还因为人们在经济刺激计划中获得了额外的现金。

德勤副董事长兼美国零售批发业务负责人罗德•赛兹表示，今年仍将吃香的礼物类别是服装、玩具和礼品卡，餐厅、娱乐和旅游消费应该也会增加。

赛兹说：“总体来看，销售额会增长，但不会像去年的增幅那么大。如果消费者购买的礼物减少了，那么节日的促销活动可能会比以往更多。”

咨询机构GlobalData Retail的零售业分析师兼常务董事尼尔•桑德斯表示，通胀不会完全“偷走”圣诞节。

不太会缩水的礼物是哪一块呢？那就是给孩子的礼物。桑德斯说：“父母们总是愿意倾尽全力，让孩子们度过一个快乐的节日。” (chinadaily.com.cn)