In mid-April, India is forecast to surpass China as the world’s most populous country.

India saw rapid population growth — almost 2% annually — for much of the second half of the last century. Over time, death rates fell, life expectancy rose and incomes went up. More people — especially those living in cities — accessed clean drinking water and modern sewerage. “Yet the birth rate remained high,” says Tim Dyson, a demographer at the London School of Economics.

India launched a family planning program in 1952 and laid out a national population policy for the first time only in 1976. But forced sterilizations of millions of poor people led to a social backlash against family planning.

India has added more than a billion people since Independence in 1947, and its population is expected to grow for another 40 years. But its population growth rate has been declining for decades now, and the country has defied dire predictions about a “demographic disaster.”

Rising incomes and improved access to health and education have helped Indian women have fewer children than before, effectively flattening the growth curve. Fertility rates have dipped below replacement levels — two births per woman — in 17 out of 22 states and federally administered territories. A replacement level is one at which new births are sufficient to maintain a steady population. The decline in birth rates has been faster in southern India than in the more populous north. India’s population is expected to peak between 1.6 and 1.8 billion around 2060. One in five people below 25 years in the world is from India and 47% of Indians are below the age of 25. Two-thirds of Indians were born after India liberalized its economy in the early 1990s. These young Indians have some unique characteristics, says Shruti Rajagopalan, an economist. “This generation of young Indians will be the largest consumer and labor source in the knowledge economy. Indians will be the largest pool of global talent,” she says.

But there are challenges too. India needs to create enough jobs for its working-age population to reap a demographic dividend. Only 40% of India’s working-age population works or wants to work, according to Center for Monitoring Indian Economy. More women would need jobs as they spend less time in their working age giving birth and looking after children. The picture here is bleaker: only 10% of working-age women were participating in the labor force in October, compared with 69% in China.

Words to Learn 相关词汇

【 反对】fǎnduì backlash a strong and adverse reaction by a large number of people, especially to a social or political development

【黯淡的】àndàn de bleak not hopeful or encouraging, unlikely to have a favorable outcome

预计4月中旬，印度将超过中国成为世界上人口最多的国家。

在上个世纪下半叶的大部分时间里，印度人口增长迅速，每年达到近2%。随着时间的推移，人口死亡率下降，预期寿命增加，收入增加。更多的人，特别是生活在城市里的人，获得了清洁的饮用水和现代化污水处理系统。“但出生率仍然很高，”伦敦经济学院的人口统计学家蒂姆•戴森说。1952年印度启动了计划生育，直到1976年才首次制定了人口政策。但是，对数百万穷人的强制绝育引发了社会对计划生育的强烈反对。

自1947年独立以来，印度已经增加了10多亿人口，预计其人口将继续增长40年。但其人口增长率几十年来一直在下降，该国也并没有印证有关“人口灾难”的可怕预言。

收入的增加以及健康和受教育机会的改善让印度妇女比以前生育更少的孩子，有效地拉平了人口增长曲线。在22个州和联邦直辖区中，有17个州的生育率已降至更替水平以下 —— 即每名妇女生育两孩。更替水平是指新生儿足以维持人口稳定的水平。印度南部的出生率下降速度比人口多的北部更快。预计印度人口将在 2060 年左右达到 16 至 18 亿之间的峰值。

世界上25岁以下的人中有五分之一来自印度，47%的印度人年龄在25岁以下。三分之二的印度人出生在印度1990年代经济自由化之后。这些年轻的印度人有其独特性，经济学家什鲁蒂•拉贾戈帕兰说。

“这一代年轻的印度人将成为知识经济中最大的消费者和劳动力来源。印度将成为全球最大的人才库，”她说。

但也有挑战。印度需要为其年轻的劳动年龄人口创造足够的就业机会以获得人口红利。根据印度经济监测中心（CMIE）的数据，只有40%的印度劳动年龄人口工作或想工作。

更多的妇女需要工作，因为她们在可就业年龄需要花更少时间生育和照顾孩子。这方面的情况不容乐观：10月份只有10%的适龄女性就业，而在中国这个数字为69%。 (chinadaily.com.cn)