Xu Ying

xuying.beijing@gmail.com

THE Chinese government recently approved the construction of six new nuclear reactors across three provinces, signaling its determination to continue expanding nuclear energy. This latest nuclear buildout reinforces China’s strategic approach towards civil nuclear energy as a critical path for enhancing energy security and meeting emissions reduction targets, but formidable obstacles remain that could constrain the scale and pace of China’s nuclear ambitions.

At present, nuclear energy accounts for only about 5% of China’s total electricity output. The dominant power generation source remains coal, which constitutes approximately 60% of the energy mix. This heavy reliance on coal has fueled China’s surging greenhouse gas emissions, making it the world’s largest emitter. To meet its pledge of reaching peak carbon by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060, China must fundamentally transform its power sector. Expanding nuclear and renewable energy sources is a priority that underpins the country’s climate change and energy security goals.

Nuclear power offers unique advantages. First, nuclear reactors generate reliable base load electricity without direct carbon emissions. Unlike intermittent renewables such as wind and solar, nuclear can provide stable, schedulable power to the grid. Second, domestically produced nuclear fuel enhances China’s energy self-sufficiency and reduces import dependence. Dominance across the entire nuclear supply chain will bolster China’s position as a major technical and geopolitical power.

However, major challenges exist that could impede the speed and scale of nuclear power expansion. First is the high upfront capital cost of building large-scale nuclear plants. At over US$6,000 per kilowatt, nuclear reactors are far costlier to construct than coal or gas plants. The long period of 5-7 years needed for construction also limits nuclear’s ability to rapidly displace fossil fuels. While China can direct state resources to finance projects, costs may become prohibitive if demand falls short.

Second is the technology risk associated with the next- generation reactors China intends to build. Most new plants will use indigenous Hualong One technology that has seen limited operational experience to date. Any safety incidents could stall China’s nuclear push.

Third are concerns over nuclear waste disposal and public acceptance for new plants following the Fukushima disaster in neighboring Japan. Robust safety regulations and effective public outreach will be vital to assuaging any concerns. Fourth is potential competition from cheaper renewable energy sources like solar and onshore wind. Costs for renewables continue to fall rapidly. If the price gap keeps narrowing, it may diminish the economic case for nuclear energy. Lastly, geopolitics and trade tensions could disrupt access to critical foreign technology, especially from developed nations wary of China’s growing capabilities. This could set back technological progress.

Despite the hurdles, China has continued to invest in new plants, seeing nuclear power as too strategically important for both energy security and emissions reduction goals.

Realizing its nuclear ambitions will require wise policymaking and reforms that incentivize efficient investment and innovation. Economic regulators must ensure electricity pricing properly values nuclear’s public benefits such as a carbon-free base load power. Technological progress and cost reduction will be accelerated by allowing greater private sector participation. Strong safety oversight and engagement with public stakeholders is also key to maintaining a robust social license for nuclear power.

Lastly, China should continue international collaboration on advanced nuclear technology, while securing indigenous expertise across the value chain.

Overall, although challenges remain, China’s nuclear push reinforces its position as a global leader in clean energy technology. Its ability to successfully expand nuclear power generation will have profound implications both for its own future and the global fight against climate change.

(The author is a Beijing-based commentator.)