CHINA is on track to meet a goal to bring its climate-warming carbon dioxide emissions to a peak before 2030, according to a poll of 89 experts from industry and academia published yesterday, though questions remain over how high the top will be.

More than 70% of respondents said China will be able to meet the target, with two saying its emissions had already peaked, in a poll compiled by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), a Helsinki-based think tank.

Still, “experts remain concerned about how high the peak emissions would reach compared with previous levels,” CREA said, with a majority of respondents expecting the total to be at least 15% higher than the 2020 level.

The CREA said respondents, including 64 based in China, were more optimistic about the country’s ability to meet its goal compared with last year, with the majority believing post-pandemic economic conditions were accelerating the energy transition.

Half of the experts surveyed by the CREA said they believed China would reach peak primary energy consumption before the end of this decade, though nearly a quarter still forecast it would continue to rise even after 2035.

China said in an agreement with the United States that it would “accelerate the substitution for coal, oil and gas generation” in order to secure “meaningful absolute power sector emission reductions” this decade.

The CREA’s lead analyst Lauri Myllyvirta said last week it was likely China’s emissions had already gone into a “structural decline,” with renewable sources capable of meeting new energy demand.      (SD-Agencies)