Punxatawney Phil, the central character of the annual rite of winter known as Groundhog’s Day, isn’t great at his job. His predictions are wrong more often than they are right.

Theresa Crimmins, the director of the U.S. National Phenology Network, said that while Punxatawney Phil is not a reliable predictor of spring’s arrival, phenology does offer scientific backing for other seemingly superstitious axioms about the natural world.

Phenology is the study of how seasonal events in the lives of plants and animals shift according to the weather and climate, such as how fish or migratory birds respond to the temperature of water and air.

While folklore often supposes animal behavior portends future weather events, in reality, flora and fauna react to weather and climate. Numerous tried-and-true proverbs about the natural world come from Native American populations.

“One example is planting corn when oak leaves are the size of a squirrel’s ear,” notes an article on phenology from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “Native Americans made the observation centuries ago that the soil was warm enough to prevent seeds from rotting, yet it was still early enough to reap a suitable harvest if corn was planted at this time.”

Crimmins points out that there are plenty of other predictors for coming ecological events spelled out in the leaves, berries and flowers of plants.

For example, the shadblow serviceberry is a small tree that is native to parts of eastern North America, and it’s believed that its name came from the fact that it bears flowers at the same time of year that shad fish begin their river migration.

The Lenape and other Native American populations made note of the phenomenon long ago and prepared to fish when the plant began to bloom.

There is research out there that suggests some animals may possess an innate sense that helps them detect when a disaster is on the way.

Golden-winged warblers, for example, evacuated an area of Tennessee more than 24 hours before a devastating string of tornadoes hit the area, according to a December 2014 study published in the journal Current Biology.

The study authors predicted the migrant birds listened to infrasound — sound at frequencies too low for humans to hear — associated with the storms and heeded it as a warning sign.

Researchers in Germany also looked into whether various species of animals could detect an oncoming earthquake.

The scientists found that, collectively, animals including cows, sheep and dogs exhibited more activity before an earthquake up to 20 hours in advance, according to a report from Germany’s Max Planck Society, a nonprofit association of research institutes.

There is also truth to the notion that crickets can act as nature’s thermometer. The insects are ectotherms, meaning their body temperature changes with that of their surrounding environment — and they routinely chirp faster in warmer weather.

According to Dolbear’s Law, a formula describing this association between crickets and weather, “you can count the number of chirps per 15 seconds, add 40, and that will give you the temperature in Fahrenheit,” the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration notes.

Frogs also deliver unique calls when it’s about to rain.

“Many twentieth-century herpetologists have confirmed and clarified the traditional observation that various species of frogs sometimes utter a distinctive vocalization, a ‘rain call,’ a short time before wet weather,” said Dr. Gordon Miller, a professor emeritus of environmental studies at Seattle University.

The calls “are perhaps triggered by a rise in humidity prior to precipitation,” Miller said.

(SD-Agencies)

Words to Learn

相关词汇

【物候学】wùhòuxué

phenology

the study of how seasonal events in the lives of plants and animals change according to the weather and climate

【靠谱的】kàopǔ de

tried-and-true

used many times in the past and proven to work well

普苏塔尼镇的土拨鼠菲尔是每年冬天“土拨鼠日”的主角，但他并不胜任天气预报员的工作，因为他的预报多数时候不准。

美国国家物候学网络主任特雷莎•克里米明斯说，虽然菲尔不能预测春天什么时候来，但物候学为有些看似迷信的自然谚语提供了科学依据。

物候学研究天气和气候变化如何影响动植物在不同季节的行为，例如鱼或候鸟对水温和气温变化会做出反应。

虽然民间通常认为动物行为预示未来的天气事件，但实际上，动植物是对天气和气候做出反应。许多关于自然的谚语来自美洲原住民。

威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校的一篇物候学的文章指出：“其中一个例子是，当橡树的叶子长到松鼠耳朵那么大时就可以种植玉米了。几个世纪前，美洲原住民观察到，那个时候土壤的温度足以防止种子腐烂，而且玉米成熟时有足够的时间收获。”

克里米明斯说，植物的叶、浆果和花也提供了预示未来生态事件的线索。

例如，浒苔薮莓是一种原产于北美东部部分地区的小乔木，它的名字来源非常有趣，每年浒苔鱼开始洄游的时候，薮莓就会开花。雷纳佩族和其他美洲原住民很早就注意到了这一现象，这种植物开花了，他们就准备捕鱼。

研究表明，某些动物可能拥有一种与生俱来的感知力，帮助它们察觉即将发生的灾难。

例如，根据2014年12 月发表在 《当代生物学》杂志上的一项研究，金翅莺在田纳西州某地遭受一连串毁灭性龙卷风袭击前24小时飞走了。

研究作者估计这些候鸟听到了与风暴有关的次声波（频率太低，人类无法听到），收到了预警。

德国的研究人员还研究了动物能否感知即将发生的地震。根据非营利研究机构马克斯•普朗克科学促进学会的报告，科学家发现包括牛、羊和狗在内的动物在地震发生前20小时会表现出烦躁不安。

蟋蟀是大自然的温度计，这种说法也是有道理的。蟋蟀是外温动物，体温会随周围环境的变化而变化 ——温暖天气里，蟋蟀叫得更加急促。

美国国家海洋和大气管理局指出，根据多尔贝尔定律，蟋蟀的叫声频率和温度有线性关系：用蟋蟀每15秒鸣叫的次数加上40，就能得出环境的华氏温度。

快下雨时青蛙会发出独特的叫声。

西雅图大学环境研究名誉教授戈登•米勒博士说：“许多二十世纪的爬行动物学家证实了一个传统说法，即青蛙有时会在潮湿天气来临前发出独特的叫声，称为‘雨叫’。”

米勒说， “可能是降水前湿度上升引发了”这种叫声。

(Translated by Debra)