RESEARCHERS in Shenzhen have developed a cutting-edge forecasting model designed to predict the “rapid intensification” of typhoons — a breakthrough expected to significantly improve disaster preparedness and save lives.

The model, created by a team at the Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology under the Chinese Academy of Sciences, is now operational at the National Meteorological Center.

In meteorology, rapid intensification occurs when a typhoon’s maximum wind speed jumps by more than 15 meters per second within 24 hours, or by more than 10 meters per second within just 12 hours.

Such “explosive” storms rank among the most dangerous natural hazards. Recent history offers devastating examples: Typhoons Rammasun (2014), Hato (2017), and Yagi (2024) all intensified violently just before making landfall, resulting in heavy casualties and massive economic damage.

Predicting these sudden surges in strength has long been a “holy grail” for scientists. In 2025, the China Association for Science and Technology listed typhoon rapid intensification as one of the top 10 frontier scientific challenges facing the world.

The new system employs an “ensemble” of four different machine-learning algorithms. Rather than relying on a single calculation, it cross-checks results across all four models. If more than half predict a sudden surge in wind speed, the system issues a formal alert.

The team tested their model by simulating Atlantic hurricanes from 2016 to 2020. Compared to the systems used by the U.S. National Hurricane Center, the Chinese model achieved a higher detection rate and fewer false alarms — proving both accurate and reliable for real-world application.

Lyu Xinyan, a senior engineer at the National Meteorological Center, noted that the 24‑hour and 12‑hour rapid intensification forecasts now provide a vital reference for the nation’s weather forecasters. By giving authorities more lead time to evacuate coastal residents and secure infrastructure, this AI‑driven model is poised to become a key pillar of China’s maritime safety strategy.

(Xinhua)