China is forecasting the development of a strong to super El Nino event this summer and autumn, raising the likelihood of heavier rainfall in the country's south, more intense heat waves and an increased risk of flooding extending into next year, the National Climate Center said recently.

Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have continued to rise since June, with the temperature anomaly in the key monitoring region reaching 1.6 C, up 0.64 C from May, the center said.

It forecast that sea surface temperatures in the region will continue to rise, leading to the formation of an eastern Pacific-type strong to super El Nino during the summer and autumn.

Experts at the center said weather patterns associated with El Nino and other climate signals are expected to make torrential rain, flooding, meteorological drought, heat waves and typhoon-related rainfall the main weather hazards during the peak summer months of July and August.

As El Nino reaches maturity in autumn and winter, southern China — particularly South China and the Yangtze River basin — is likely to receive above-average rainfall, while temperatures across most parts of the country are expected to remain above normal, the center said.

During the spring and summer of next year, when El Nino is forecast to weaken and dissipate, above-average rainfall is still expected across broad areas of China, increasing the risk of flooding in multiple river basins, including the Yangtze River.

Most parts of the country are also expected to experience significantly above-normal temperatures, with stronger and more widespread summer heat waves.

Major grain-producing regions in northeastern and northern China should prepare for the potential effects of excessive rainfall and flooding on agricultural production, while northwestern China, including the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, should strengthen drought preparedness amid hotter and drier conditions, the center said.

Tan Zhemin, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and president of Nanjing University, said El Nino's impacts extend across regions and industries and often emerge with a time lag.

Governments and businesses should strengthen climate forecasting and early warning systems, improve coordination among key sectors and reinforce supply chain risk management to enhance overall resilience to a strong El Nino event, he said.

What’s an El Niño?

The El Niño phase of ENSO (in contrast to a neutral or La Niña phase) is characterized by months of warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Peruvian fishermen in the 1600s noticed this warming often occurring around Christmas time, and dubbed the phenomenon “El Niño,” which means “little boy” or “the Christ child” in Spanish.

The most recent strong El Niños happened in 2015–2016, 1997–1998 and 1982–1983.

中国国家气候中心预测今年夏季和秋季，赤道中东太平洋海温持续升高，预计将发展形成一次强至超强厄尔尼诺事件。这一气候现象将导致我国南方地区降水明显增多，同时加剧高温热浪强度，并增加未来一年内发生流域性洪水的风险。

据国家气候中心监测，今年6月份以来，赤道中东太平洋海域的海表温度呈现出持续上升态势。其中，关键监测区域的海温距平（即实际海温与常年平均值的偏差）已达到1.6摄氏度，较5月份上升了0.64摄氏度。中心进一步预测，未来数月内该区域海温仍将继续攀升，从而在夏秋季节形成一次典型的东部太平洋型强厄尔尼诺事件。

专家指出，在厄尔尼诺事件及同期其他气候因子的共同影响下，今年7月至8月的主汛期期间，我国主要气象灾害将表现为暴雨洪涝、气象干旱、区域性高温热浪以及台风带来的强降水。特别是南方地区，在厄尔尼诺成熟的秋季和冬季，华南沿海以及长江流域的降水量大概率超过常年同期，而全国大部地区的气温也将普遍偏高。

明年春季和夏季，随着厄尔尼诺事件逐步减弱并最终消散，我国大范围地区仍可能出现降水偏多的局面。届时，长江流域等多条主要河流的防汛压力将显著增大，需要警惕流域性洪水的发生。同时，全国大多数地区气温仍将明显高于常年，夏季高温热浪事件可能更强、影响范围更广。

国家气候中心特别提醒，东北地区和华北地区作为我国重要的粮食主产区，需提前防范强降水和洪涝灾害对农作物生长带来的不利影响。而西北地区，包括新疆维吾尔自治区在内，在气温偏高、降水偏少的背景下，应加强干旱应对和蓄水保墒工作。

中国科学院院士、南京大学校长谈哲敏表示，厄尔尼诺的影响往往跨越多个区域和行业，且其效应存在明显的滞后性，不会随着事件本身的消散而立即消失。他建议，各级政府和企业应加强气候预测和预警能力，完善关键领域的跨部门协调机制，并强化供应链风险管理。

什么是厄尔尼诺？

厄尔尼诺是赤道东太平洋海温异常偏高的一种气候现象，是厄尔尼诺-南方涛动的暖相位。与之相对的是中性状态或拉尼娜现象。历史上，秘鲁渔民早在17世纪就注意到，每年圣诞节前后附近海域会出现变暖现象，于是将其命名为“El Niño”，西班牙语意为“小男孩”或“圣婴”。最近几次强厄尔尼诺事件分别发生在2015—2016年、1997—1998年和1982—1983年。

(Translated by DeepSeek)