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A RECESSION in Europe and weaker growth in India, Brazil and other developing countries will likely slow global economic growth, the World Bank says.
In its twice-yearly report issued early yesterday, the bank substantially cut its forecasts for growth in both developed and poorer nations. It now projects that the global economy will expand 2.5 percent this year and 3.1 percent next year. That is down from a June forecast of 3.6 percent growth for both years.
The U.S. economy will also suffer from slower global growth, the report said, though not by as much as developing countries.
“The world is very different than it was six months ago,” said Andrew Burns, head of the bank’s global economics team and lead author of the report. “This is going to be a very difficult year.”
The report noted two major reasons for the projected global slowdown: Europe’s debt crisis has worsened, and several big developing countries have taken steps to prevent growth from overheating and fueling inflation.
A growing concern is that each trend is negatively affecting the other, Burns said during a conference call with reporters.
Europe’s debt crisis has made investors nervous, so they are lending less to many emerging-market governments. That has pushed up interest rates in those countries.
International investors have also cut their investments in developing countries 45 percent in the second half of last year, compared to the same period in 2010.
At the same time, India, Brazil, Russia, South Africa and Turkey are taking steps to rein in borrowing in order to cool their economies. That might be prudent for those nations, Burns said. But coming at the same time as Europe’s troubles, the moves “create a fairly dangerous dynamic where these two trends feed on themselves,” he said.
The bank now forecasts that developing countries will grow 5.4 percent this year, below its June estimate of 6.2 percent. Developed nations will expand only 1.4 percent, down from its earlier 2.7 percent projection.
The 17 nations that use the euro, meanwhile, will shrink 0.3 percent this year, the bank said. That is down from an expansion of 1.8 percent that it forecast in June. The U.S. economy will grow 2.2 percent this year and 2.4 percent next yar, the report said.
Developing countries could be hit harder by a downturn than they were in the 2008 global crisis and should prepare for possible shocks, said the bank’s chief economist, Justin Yifu Lin. He urged them to line up financing for budget deficits in advance, review the health of their banks and emphasize spending on social safety nets.
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