CHINA’S economic slowdown is expected to reach its nadir this quarter, with a recovery of momentum delayed until the final quarter of the year, leaving growth for 2012 likely to fall below 8 percent, a level unseen since 1999, a poll showed.

Many economists lowered their forecasts for the world’s second-largest economy after weak July and August data, reflecting both external headwinds and domestic weakness.

The median forecast of 20 economists polled Tuesday and Wednesday is for China to grow 7.4 percent in the July-September period from a year earlier, slowing for a seventh consecutive quarter, before picking up to 7.6 percent in the final three months.

The latest poll showed pessimism deepening from an earlier survey in July when there had been hopes of a quicker and stronger upturn, with forecasts for 7.9 percent year-on-year growth in the third quarter and 8.2 percent in the fourth.

It partly reflects some disappointment at the lack of urgent policy action during the past two months to bring down the cost of credit by cutting interest rates or increasing the supply by cutting banks’ required reserve ratios.

“There is still no sign yet that final demand across the economy has turned around,” said Mark Williams and Wang Qinwei of Capital Economics in London. “Policy stimulus is showing up in stronger infrastructure investment but has not been large enough to offset the weakness elsewhere.”

The latest survey’s median forecast for 2012 growth was 7.7 percent, down from the July poll forecast of 8 percent, but still above the government’s target of 7.5 percent.

Forecasts for 2013 were similarly cut, with the latest survey pointing to 8 percent growth, compared with July’s forecast of 8.4 percent. (SD-Agencies)