U.S. wholesale inventories unexpectedly rose in January as sales recorded their biggest decline since 2009, lifting the number of months it would take to clear warehouses to its highest level in more than five and a half years.
While that would normally suggest a wholesale inventory overhang that could weigh on economic growth as firms draw down rather than build stocks, economists were little worried and blamed the jump in the inventory-to-sales ratio on the plunge in crude oil prices.
“In the current situation, it is only an issue for the oil industry because of the collapse in price. There is far less evidence of anything being amiss among other U.S. industries,” said Steve Blitz, chief economist at ITG Investment Research in New York.
The U.S. Commerce Department said yesterday that wholesale inventories increased 0.3 percent in January after being unchanged in December. Inventories are a key component of gross domestic product changes.
With sales falling 3.1 percent, the largest drop since March 2009, that means it would take 1.27 months to clear shelves — the most since July 2009. The inventory-to-sales ratio was at 1.22 months in December.
Brent crude has lost more than half its value since mid-2014, weighing on wholesale petroleum inventories and sales. The inventory-to-sales ratio for wholesale petroleum in January was the highest in two years.
Economists had forecast wholesale inventories flat in January. With inventories instead rising, Barclays lifted its first-quarter growth forecast one percentage point to a 1.8 percent annualized pace. Forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers raised its estimate to a 1.7 percent pace from 1.5 percent.
Economic growth in recent months has been slowed by harsh winter weather as well as a now-settled labor dispute at West Coast ports and weak growth in China and Europe.
But with the labor market tightening, the cool-off in growth may be temporary. (SD-Agencies)
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