IT’S been a torrid time of late for the Russian economy as the fallout from Ukraine and tumbling oil prices have plunged the country into financial crisis.
But an unexpected recent rebound by the ruble has partially reversed months of pain for the nosediving national currency and fired hope among harried officials in Moscow that there might be a light at the end of the tunnel.
Few analysts were betting on a bounce after the ruble lost over 40 percent of its value in 2014 and carried on the slump into this year.
But a drop in fighting in east Ukraine and the steadying of oil prices seems to have combined with the tax payment season and a Kremlin drive to get money repatriated to fire an unlikely recovery.
Since briefly hitting a low of some 80 to the dollar and 100 to the euro in December, and sparking panic among Russians, the ruble has now climbed back to some 57 against the greenback and 62 to the euro.
“The economic situation is still complicated but we are seeing some significant signs of stabilization,” Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said in a rare upbeat statement this week.
With things starting to look up, Ulyukayev predicted that the drop in GDP this year could be less than the 3 percent that is officially forecast — still dire, but not as bad as feared.
Inflation has reached a high of around 17 percent but has also appeared to stabilize of late and the finance ministry is already claiming that the recession could be over by the third quarter of this year.
Analyst Timur Khairullin at VTB24 said that the ruble’s “firm dynamic” was being bolstered by both external and internal factors.(SD-Agencies)
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