AS gloom gathered over China’s economic outlook in March last year, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economist Song Yu declared growth likely had “troughed” and a rebound would follow. The top forecaster on China’s economy was proven right, and sees a repeat this year.

    “Now it’s very similar to this time of last year in terms of having a combination of monetary, fiscal and administrative loosening,” said Beijing-based Song, ranked the best overall forecaster of China’s economy by Bloomberg Rankings for the past two years. “The data in recent years consistently show us one thing: If the Chinese Government really, really wants to push up short-term growth, they can.”

    Reflecting that determination, the central bank Sunday announced the third benchmark interest rate cut of the past six months, which combines with two reductions to banks’ reserve ratios and targeted liquidity injections. Song’s sanguine stance is echoed by other economists on the top five forecasters list, who don’t see a hard landing scenario.

    The ranking of economic forecasters is based on the last two years of data reported to April 21 and uses estimates submitted to Bloomberg for nine key indicators that include GDP, exports, imports, fixed-asset investment and consumer and producer prices. They commented before the People’s Bank of China’s latest cut, which lowers the benchmark lending rate by 0.25 percentage points to 5.1 percent and the one-year deposit level to 2.25 percent.

    To conjure their forecasts on the world’s second-biggest economy, the top ranked economists need to deal with official data that Premier Li once said he prefers not to rely on and that prompted bond fund manager Bill Gross to call China “the mystery meat of emerging-market countries.”

    Song was unfazed by an unexpected drop in April exports and says his optimism over a second-quarter rebound for the economy is buoyed by an anticipated tailwind from external demand.

    On a quarter-on-quarter annualized basis, gross domestic product growth will pick up to 6.9 percent this quarter, he estimates. Song projects GDP will expand 6.8 percent this year — near Premier Li Keqiang’s target of about 7 percent — and full-year growth of 6.7 percent in 2016.

    Among signs that April data may improve are home sales volume up 18 percent last month from a year earlier in the 29 cities tracked by China Real Estate Information Corp. Some local governments are reporting hefty growth in power use: in Luan of Anhui Province, industrial-use power consumption rose 10.4 percent in April from a year earlier.

    On the flip side, the final manufacturing PMI reading from HSBC and Markit Economics deteriorated in April.

    This year and next will be the bottom for China’s economic growth, with stabilization from 2017, according to fifth-ranked forecaster Zhu Qibing of China Minzu Securities in Beijing.

    Paris-based Yao Wei of Societe Generale SA, ranked third by Bloomberg, says the economy is fluctuating around a long-term downward trend and expects growth for the whole year of 6.8 percent. (SD-Agencies)