OPEC on Tuesday raised its forecast of oil supplies from non-member countries in 2015, a sign that crude’s price collapse is taking longer than expected to hit U.S. shale drillers and other competing sources.

    In a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forecast no extra demand for its crude oil this year despite faster global growth in consumption, because of higher-than-expected production from the United States and other countries outside the group.

    In contrast, the U.S. Government on Tuesday lowered both its 2015 and 2016 U.S. oil production forecasts, signalling that the 60 percent rout in benchmark prices since last summer may finally be weighing on shale output.

    The U.S. 2015 crude oil production growth forecast was cut by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 650,000 bpd from the previous report, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s short-term energy outlook. Meanwhile, it expanded the production decline forecast for 2016 by 400,000 bpd from a 150,000 bpd decline previously.

    Benchmark Brent is trading below US$50 a barrel, close to its 2015 low after an 18 percent drop in July. But OPEC has refused to cut output, seeking to recover market share by slowing higher-cost production in the United States and elsewhere that had been encouraged by OPEC’s prior policy of keeping prices near US$100.

    Earlier this year, OPEC slashed its prediction of non-OPEC supply for 2015, expecting lower prices to prompt a slowdown. But on Tuesday, it raised the forecast by about 90,000 bpd following a 220,000 bpd increase in last month’s report.

    “U.S. onshore production from unconventional sources is currently expected to decline marginally in the second half of 2015 through year-end, while U.S. offshore production is expected to grow due to project start-ups,” OPEC said.

    Meanwhile, the EIA decreased its forecast of non-OPEC supply Tuesday, lowering 2015 output by 50,000 bpd and 2016 output by 80,000 bpd compared to the previous month’s report.

    U.S. energy companies have been adding drilling rigs in recent weeks despite the price drop, and OPEC in the report raised its forecast of U.S. output in 2015 by 20,000 bpd. In March, OPEC was expecting a fall in production possibly by late 2015 as drilling subsided, although more recent data from the EIA show that output peaked in March.

    “OPEC is starting to recognize the resilience of U.S. shale,” said Jamie Webster, analyst at IHS in Washington and an OPEC expert.

    A reduction in the cost of oil projects since the price crash is helping non-OPEC supply to compete in the market.

    “The OPEC secretariat is indeed re-evaluating non-OPEC supply’s ability to withstand prices,” said Samuel Ciszuk, senior adviser on security of supply to the Swedish Energy Agency.(SD-Agencies)