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在线翻译:
szdaily -> World Economy
Market woes raise fresh worries over global economy
     2015-August-27  08:53    Shenzhen Daily

    A ROLLER-COASTER ride on global markets, which saw some bourses record their largest one-week losses since 2008 as they took fright at a Chinese sell-off, have raised fresh worries over the strength of the global economy.

    And while analysts said fears of a repeat of the financial crises of 1997 or 2008 were largely unfounded — mainly because of reforms undertaken since — they warned that continued turbulence emerging from China would take a toll on global economic growth, especially in emerging economies.

    An 8.5 percent plunge on Shanghai’s benchmark index Monday triggered sharp declines across the main U.S. and European exchanges, with drops that wiped out any profits earned this year.

    The carnage was even worse in emerging economies, and while non-China stock markets recovered somewhat Tuesday, comparisons have nevertheless been made to the 1997 financial crisis, which left East and Southeast Asian economies in tatters and some seeking bailouts from the International Monetary Fund.

    China’s failed efforts to calm its own capital markets and stem the domestic economic slowdown were compounded by the unexpected devaluation of the yuan two weeks ago.

    Most emerging economies followed, effectively triggering a bout of competitive devaluations.

    Already amid worries about China and other emerging economies, the International Monetary Fund in July cut its 2015 growth forecast for the year to 3.3 percent from 3.5 percent predicted just three months earlier.

    Charles Collyns, chief economist at the International Institute of Finance in Washington, noted that “there are enduring factors that do imply a more enduring impact on the global economy.”

    “I don’t think you can just shrug your shoulders and say, ‘don’t worry, come back in two weeks.’

    “There is a broader malaise across emerging markets,” he said, pointing to political crises in Brazil and Turkey, stalled reforms in India, the impact of sanctions on Russia, and the loss of income in oil exporters like Nigeria as a result of tanking crude prices.

    Even so, Collyns and others were quick to dismiss the suggestion of another global financial crisis in the air.

    After the 1997 Asian upheaval, emerging economies freed up their currencies and capital markets, and their companies stopped depending excessively on what were once cheap dollar loans.

    “Back then, the whole house of cards came down. But today, with no pegs, the exchange rates are able to take some of the local heat, like a safety valve,” said Song Seng Wun, an economist with CIMB Private Banking.

    As for Japan, Europe and the United States, the sources of the 2008 crisis — the banks — have gone through rigorous reforms and recapitalization that leave them far more able to handle upheavals.

    Central banks in all three remain on crisis footing, holding interest rates close to zero and, in Japan and Europe, still pumping liquidity into their economies to bolster growth. (SD-Agencies)

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