FLUSH with cash and confidence after years of rising sales, German carmakers are used to reaping industry-leading returns. But with Chinese demand abruptly slowing, the profit engine has begun to sputter, overshadowing the glitz of the Frankfurt auto show, which opens today.

    For the home team of BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen, as well as European rivals such as PSA Peugeot Citroen, China’s downturn also threatens to weigh on already weak emerging markets and put a damper on recovering demand at home.

    “Auto sector earnings have peaked,” Bernstein analyst Max Warburton warned investors Friday, noting the broad array of new German luxury models about to be unveiled in Frankfurt — and aimed squarely at the world’s biggest auto market.

    “Go see these products while you can,” he said. “Few would even exist if it weren’t for China.”

    Days before the show, IHS Automotive cut its full-year Chinese market forecast by 700,000 vehicles, from 4.4 percent to 1.4 percent growth. For 2015-17 the shortfall totals 3.6 million cars and light trucks.

    Besides marking the likely end of a stellar run of earnings, the 118-year-old industry gathering will show evidence of a deeper shift that is pitting carmakers against technology players, often backed by big suppliers such as Bosch.

    “For us, new market entrants are customers just like the established carmakers,” said Bosch mobility solutions chief Rolf Bulander. He cited Google and electric carmaker Tesla among clients for the company’s high-tech driver assistance, powertrain and sensor systems.

    Some of the newer automotive players may not succeed, Bulander predicted, “but others will establish themselves.”

    German carmakers are attempting to riposte with their own technology and with electric rivals to Tesla. (SD-Agencies)