SOUTH AFRICAN exporters have failed to take full advantage of the rand currency’s nearly 15 percent drop this year, hamstrung by electricity constraints, labor tensions and an over-reliance on commodity trade with China.
The export sector has emerged as a key driver of growth in Africa’s most advanced economy as domestic demand wanes, with real net exports making the largest contribution to GDP in the second quarter at 6.1 percentage points.
Although exports performed better in the first half of 2015 compared with last year, this was mainly off a low base after prolonged wage-related stoppages slashed output in the key mining and manufacturing sectors in 2014.
The momentum is expected to have stalled in the third quarter, with stuttering growth in China, which accounts for 20 percent of South Africa’s trade, taking its toll.
By comparison, just over 30 percent of trade is conducted with the eurozone, and 15 percent with the United States.
“Overall, we may have expected a stronger response to the persistently weaker rand (but) South Africa’s exports are more sensitive to external demand changes than to changes in the real trade-weighted rand,” said HSBC Africa economist David Faulkner.
“As such, subdued global growth, a slowing China and weaker emerging market growth have fed an unfavorable dynamic, suppressing external demand and limiting the possibility for a stronger export response.”
The one exception has been vehicle exports, which have soared nearly 34 percent so far this year compared with the same period last year, according to data from the trade department, against a 4 percent drop in local sales.
But other sectors are struggling. South African Revenue Service numbers showed the trade deficit spiralled to 9.95 billion rand (US$765 million) in August, the biggest shortfall since January, as exports of mineral products slumped 20 percent.(SD-Agencies)
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