GERMAN industrial output posted its steepest drop in more than a year in September, raising some concerns that Europe’s biggest economy may feel a year-end chill from a slowdown in emerging markets.
The second straight fall in production, on the back of a sharp decline in industrial orders in September, prompted several economists to scale back their forecasts for German growth last quarter.
Following the 1.1 percent drop in industrial production in Germany, economists at JP Morgan also cut their third-quarter growth forecasts for the broader eurozone.
Other data for September published Friday showed France’s trade deficit widened further, but Spain reported a bigger rise in industrial output than any analyst polled by Reuters had forecast.
Despite the drop in output in Germany, several economists remained upbeat, noting that business surveys suggested recent weak data may mark just a temporary summer blip rather than the start of a prolonged slowdown.
Unicredit chief economist Andreas Rees said emerging market headwinds would be offset by robust momentum in the United States and the eurozone, as well as by strong domestic demand.
Berlin expects strong private consumption and higher spending by states on refugees to help the economy grow 1.7 percent this year and 1.8 percent next year.
While the Economy Ministry noted that a “light headwind” from emerging markets was currently dampening production at factories, it said positive business sentiment suggested the current dry spell would be limited.
In another sign European businesses were taking emerging markets problems in their stride, France’s manufacturing sector expects to increase investment by 3 percent next year, a survey by the INSEE statistics agency showed. In brighter news elsewhere, Spanish industrial output rose by 3.8 percent in September boosted by capital goods and durable consumer goods, data showed Friday.(SD-Agencies)
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