THERE is a “strong case” for raising interest rates when Federal Reserve policymakers meet in mid-December, as long as the economic data do not disappoint, a top Fed official said Saturday.
“The data I think have been overall encouraging, especially on the labor market,” San Francisco Fed President John Williams told reporters after a conference at University of California Berkeley’s Clausen Center.
“Assuming that we continue to get good data on the economy, continue to get signs that we are moving closer to achieving our goals and gaining confidence getting back to 2 percent inflation. If that continues to happen there’s a strong case to be made in December to raise rates.”
New U.S. applications for unemployment benefits fell this month while a gauge of U.S. economic activity rebounded in October, signs of a healthy labor market and economy that could give the Federal Reserve confidence to raise interest rates next month.
Other data Thursday showed factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region picked up slightly in November after two straight months of declines, another indication that the worst of the manufacturing rout was probably over.
Outside manufacturing, the economy has remained resilient despite faltering global growth.
“Business rolls on unperturbed by the China slowdown, sclerotic European growth or the commodity bust weighing on many emerging market nations, so it is time for the Fed to up the anchor on these very low interest rates,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank in New York.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 271,000 for the week ended Nov. 14, the Labor Department said. Claims have now held below the 300,000 mark for 37 consecutive weeks, the longest stretch in years, and are not too far from levels last seen in the early 1970s.
Claims below this level are usually associated with a healthy jobs market. Economists say there is little scope for claims to drop further as the labor market approaches full employment.
At 5 percent, the unemployment rate is in territory that many Fed officials see as consistent with full employment and the share of job seekers per open positions is the lowest since 2007. Diminishing labor market slack is also highlighted by the shrinking ranks of the long-term unemployed.(SD-Agencies)
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