OPEC officials questioned an upbeat forecast from the group’s researchers in a meeting ahead of this week’s gathering of oil ministers, with some skeptical there will be a quick easing of the supply glut in 2016.

    The comments point to a less jubilant mood in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), whose oil ministers meet to set policy Dec. 4, than during their last meeting in June. Oil has fallen to US$45 a barrel on oversupply concerns compared to US$65 last time.

    “Market data are showing loads of uncertainties,” said one source.

    OPEC’s national representatives — officials representing the 12 member-countries — plus officials from OPEC’s Vienna secretariat — met to discuss the market. The two-day meeting, called the Economic Commission Board, concluded Friday.

    A year ago, OPEC made its historic decision to refuse to prop up prices by cutting supply and focus on defending market share. The shift was led by Saudi Arabia, supported by other Gulf OPEC members. Doubts about the policy among less wealthy members are growing.

    OPEC’s research team expects higher demand for the group’s oil in 2016 as supply from rival producers declines, reducing the global supply glut. World oil demand is expected to rise by 1.25 million barrels per day.

    One of the differences in views, an OPEC delegate said, was around whether OPEC’s demand forecast is too optimistic while another non-Gulf delegate was downbeat about the outlook.

    “No, it is not,” the second delegate said, asked if the market outlook appeared better. “It is complicated.”

    “We think it will take a longer time for the market to go back to stability. Maybe another year and half,” another delegate said before the ECB meeting.

    Nonetheless, OPEC is widely expected to leave its current policy in place when ministers meet.(SD-Agencies)