AS crude futures plumbed new 12-year lows, speculators last week poured money into exchange-traded products tracking oil, doubling down on bets that prices may have finally hit bottom.
Trading in the United States Oil Fund, the eldest U.S. oil ETP and among the most popular, touched record daily volumes twice last week.
More than 102 million shares traded Jan 12 — the highest level since the fund’s creation in 2006 — and another 100.5 million transacted the day after. On Friday, another 84.3 million shares traded, the fourth-busiest day in the ETP’s history.
The brisk trade showed the growing appeal of ETPs, derivatively priced securities that can be a more effective way to speculate on the price of oil than betting on single stocks or in other markets.
Heavy trading in USO, which tracks the price of West Texas Intermediate futures, marks the latest attempt by swarms of investors to call a bottom in what is now a year-and-a-half long slide in oil.
The USO took in a net US$3 billion in new money last year, far more than the US$1.2 billion they took in 2014, according to Morningstar Inc., and so far this year, has taken in a net US$421 million.
In less than six months, shares outstanding of the ETP have surged to 327 million, up from 161 million in August.
But with WTI futures prices falling by more than 40 percent since the end of August, those earlier bets have been wrong.
“Everybody wants to try to pick a bottom,” said Jared Dillian, an investment strategist and former ETF trader. “It’s just human nature.”
The “contango” in oil also makes shorting the ETP appetizing for some trades, he added. Shorting an ETP essentially means betting that its price will fall.(SD-Agencies
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