CHINA’S exports in March returned to growth for the first time in nine months, adding to further signs of stabilization in the world’s second-largest economy that cheered regional investors.

March exports rose a blistering 11.5 percent from a year earlier, customs data showed yesterday, the first increase since June and the largest percentage rise since February 2015.

Economists warned that the data was heavily influenced by base effects and seasonal distortions from the Lunar New Year, and was not necessarily evidence of stronger global demand.

Chinese investors celebrated, nevertheless, with key stock indexes hitting three-month highs and the yuan firming.

“China’s foreign trade sector will likely improve from last year due to low comparables, but the improvement will not be dramatic, as the trends in external markets are not great,” said Wang Tieshi, economist with Industrial Securities.

“We’ve started to see improvement in PMI and other indicators, which points to some degree of recovery going into the second quarter.”

The upside surprise comes after other March economic indicators hinted of slight improvements in the broader economy, although other surveys have shown rising downward pressure on wages and employment.

Imports continued to fall but less than expected, declining by 7.6 percent in dollar denominated terms, led by sharp corrections in imports of tax-free foreign goods, rentals and leasing and imported equipment.

However, import volumes of most major commodities, notably copper and iron ore, rose strongly. That left the country with a trade surplus of US$29.86 billion for the month, data from the General Administration of Customs showed, versus a forecast of US$30.85 billion.

“I think we should focus on the better-than-expected imports growth rate, which means domestic demand is also recovering, driven by infrastructure investment and also the real estate sector recovery,” said Ma Xiaoping, analyst at HSBC.

China’s slowdown might not be quite as severe as first feared but its “momentous” shift from investment-led growth is still having a chilling effect on trade globally, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Tuesday.

The IMF estimates every 1 percentage point investment-driven drop in China’s GDP, cut growth for the entire Group of 20 nations by 0.25 percentage points.

“Even countries that have few direct trade linkages with China are being affected through the Chinese slowdown’s impact on prices of commodities and manufactured goods, and on global confidence and risk sentiment,” the IMF said.

Tony Nash, managing partner at advisory firm Complete Intelligence, which focuses on global trade flows, sees China’s exports and imports stabilizing over the next six months.

“As we close out Q2 and enter Q3, we’ll see more stable trade data before starting to see sustainable, small rises in both sides,” Nash said, adding data should be much less volatile in the second half as currencies and commodities stabilize.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected March exports to rise 2.5 percent, after tumbling 25.4 percent in February — the worst showing since May 2009, and expected imports to fall 10.2 percent, based on weakness in global demand.

Premier Li Keqiang said last week that China’s economic indicators showed signs of improvement in the first quarter but a sluggish world economy and volatile markets were undermining gains.(SD-Agencies)

    Power consumption rises 5.6%

    CHINESE power consumption reached 476.2 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) in March, up 5.6 percent on the year, the country’s State planning agency said yesterday.

    Zhao Chenxin, a spokesman for the National Development and Reform Commission, told a media briefing that power consumption for the first quarter as a whole reached 1.352 trillion kWh, up 3.2 percent year on year. He said the recovery in consumption growth over the first quarter was driven by high-tech and service sectors as well as increases in residential demand, with industrial consumption still relatively weak.

    FDI inflows up 7.8%

    CHINA’S non-financial foreign direct investment (FDI) rose 7.8 percent in March from a year earlier to 82.3 billion yuan or US$12.9 billion, the Commerce Ministry said Tuesday.

    FDI inflows were US$35.4 billion in the first three months, up 4.5 percent from the same period last year, according to a statement published on the ministry website.

    5.5b yuan investment projects approved

    THE government has approved 5.5 billion yuan (US$851.06 million) worth of fixed asset investment projects in March, the country’s State planner said yesterday.

    China is ramping up fixed asset investment to spur growth as the economy slows.

    Govt. unveils trial rules to cut overcapacity

    THE powerful national planning body Tuesday unveiled a trial “negative list” program to cut capacity in a range of sectors from coal to beer.

    The Central Government has identified overcapacity and the closure of debt-ridden “zombie” firms as one of its main policy priorities for 2016.

    The National Development and Reform Commission’s trial program will cover the cities of Shanghai and Tianjin as well as the provinces of Guangdong and Fujian, and lists on its 135 pages the sectors that will be subject to restrictions. It provided as one of its examples plants that produce fewer than 18,000 bottles of beer an hour.(SD-Agencies)